The climate agency stated in a press release:

El Niño conditions across the equatorial Pacific have come together, and we can now announce its arrival,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and ENSO forecaster. “While sea surface temperatures are above average, current observations and climate models indicate that this El Nino will be weak, meaning we do not expect significant global impacts through the remainder of winter and into the spring.

NOAA projected a 55% chance of El Niño persisting through spring. Climate expert David Zierden, the State Climatologist of Florida and a scientist in the Florida Climate Center and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University, tweeted six indicators that El Niño is quite healthy right now. Here is what it all means.

7 – day sea surface temperature anomalies centered on March 6, 2009.David Zierden/NOAA CPC

Sea Surface Temperatures. One of the signature indicators of El Niño is warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Current SSTs are 1-2 degrees C warmer than normal throughout from eastern to central regions of the basin (graphic above). The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Glossary of Meteorology defines El Nino as “A significant increase in sea surface temperature over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific that occurs at irregular intervals, generally ranging between two and seven years.”

Sub surface water temperature anomalies.David Zierden/NOAA CPC

Sub-Surface Temperatures. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website,

During the developing phase of the El Niño, the subsurface ocean structure is characterized by an abnormally deep layer of warm water and an increased depth of the thermocline across the eastern tropical Pacific. Thus, the slope of the thermocline is reduced across the basin. In very strong El Niño episodes, the thermocline can actually become flat across the entire tropical Pacific for periods of several months.

Zierden said that a strong downwelling Kelvin wave is present in the eastern Pacific Ocean (graphic above). During an El Niño, anomalously warm water temperatures are supported by large-scale waves moving across the Pacific Ocean basin toward South America. The NASA Visible Earth website points out:

Under normal conditions, the tropics’ prevailing easterly winds push Sun-warmed surface waters across the Pacific from the Americas toward Indonesia, creating a deep pool of warm water in the western Pacific. During an El Niño, the trade winds falter, and sometimes even reverse, for months. When the winds that maintain the warm pool falter, a large pulse of warm water from the western Pacific slides back toward the east.

Wind anomalies at 850 mb pressure level.Dave Zierden/NOAA CPC

Westerly Wind Burst. Zierden also documented the “strongest, most widespread westerly wind anomalies this year over the western and central Pacific (graphic above).” Why is that important? Scholarly research has shown that westerly wind bursts are often associated with El Niño. Research suggests that such wind bursts may be responsible for the downwelling Kelvin wave, eastward equatorial surface currents and the warm pool.

Outgoing Longwave Radiaion. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) is measured by satellites. Negative anomalies of OLR indicate the presence of convective clouds. Colder clouds that penetrate to higher altitudes emit less infrared energy detectable by the satellite. Deep, cold convection in this part of the Pacific basin is a typically associated with the warm phase of the Southern Oscillation (graphic below).

Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the central Pacific Ocean in recent decades.NOAA

Southern Oscillation Index. The Southern Oscillation (SOI), according to Dr. Zierden, has reached its lowest level since 2016 (graphic below). SOI is defined by NOAA as “a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.” Negative SOI reveals lower than normal air pressure in Tahiti and above normal at Darwin. The pressure values at these locations oscillate between warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) conditions.

The current Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).David Zierden/NOAA CPC

The Jet Stream. This factor connects U.S. and global weather patterns to El Niño. The El Niño in the Pacific Ocean modifies global weather patterns through teleconnections. Teleconnections are apparent changes or correlations in meteorological conditions across long distances. According to Dr. Zierden’s tweet, “…the classic enhanced subtropical jet over North America” has been present during the past month. The Climas website at the University of Arizona provides the needed context:

The influence of ENSO on weather…is tied to its ability to change the position of the jet stream—the winds aloft that steer storm systems and dictate where areas of high and low pressure are positioned. During El Niño events, the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean becomes less wavy and splits into a strengthening subtropical jet stream near the equator and a weaker polar jet stream

This pattern change affects global storm tracks, precipitation distributions, and even hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Zierden told me by email,

Here in North Florida and the Southeast, the rainy and stormy pattern since October has been consistent with El Nino. Key indices used by climatologist such as Nino 3.4 index has been mostly above the 0.5C threshold since mid-September. Now atmospheric indicators are aligning with warm ocean temperatures, signaling that El Nino conditions could very well last late into spring.

He also expects NOAA to deliver a similar message to his Twitter thread very soon.

Average subtropical jet stream at 250 mb over the past month.David Zierden via Twitter

” readability=”74.633947849194″>
< div _ ngcontent-c14 ="" innerhtml ="

On Valentine’s Day2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration( NOAA )revealed that El Niño formally showed up. The environment company specified in a news release:

(* )El Niño conditions throughout the equatorial Pacific have actually come together, and we can now reveal its arrival,” stated Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Environment Forecast Center, and ENSO forecaster.” While sea surface area temperature levels are above average, present observations and environment designs show that this El Nino will be weak, indicating we do not anticipate substantial international effects through the rest of winter season and into the spring.(**** )

NOAA forecasted a55%

opportunity of El Niño continuing through spring. Environment specialist David Zierden,(********** )the State Climatologist of Florida and a researcher in the Florida Environment Center and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Forecast Research Studies(*** ) at Florida State University, tweeted 6 indications that El Niño is rather healthy today. Here is what all of it ways.

(*********** )

(************** )
(*****************

)

7- day sea surface area temperature level
abnormalities fixated March 6,(************************************************************** ).(******************* )David Zierden/NOAA CPC

Sea
Surface Area Temperature Levels

. One

of the signature indications of El Niño is warm sea surface area temperature levels( SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Present SSTs are 1-2 degrees C warmer than regular throughout from eastern to main areas of the basin( graphic above). The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Glossary of Meteorology specifies El Nino as” A considerable boost in sea surface area temperature level over the eastern and main equatorial Pacific that takes place at irregular periods, usually varying in between 2 and 7 years.”

Sub surface area water temperature level abnormalities. David Zierden/NOAA CPC(**** )

(********************* ) Sub-Surface Temperatures. According to NOAA’s Environment Forecast Center site,

Throughout the establishing stage of the El Niño, the subsurface ocean structure is defined by an unusually deep layer of warm water and an increased depth of the thermocline throughout the eastern tropical Pacific. Hence, the slope of the thermocline is decreased throughout the basin. In really strong El Niño episodes, the thermocline can really end up being flat throughout the whole tropical Pacific for durations of a number of months.

Zierden stated that a strong downwelling Kelvin wave is

present in the eastern Pacific Ocean( graphic above). Throughout an El (****** )Niño (******* ), anomalously warm water temperature levels are supported by massive waves crossing the Pacific Ocean basin towards South America. The NASA Visible Earth site mentions:

Under regular conditions, the tropics’ dominating easterly

winds press Sun-warmed surface area waters throughout the Pacific from the Americas towards Indonesia, developing a deep swimming pool of warm water in the western Pacific. Throughout an El Niño, the trade winds fail, and in some cases even reverse, for months. When the winds that preserve the warm swimming pool fail, a big pulse of warm water from the western Pacific slides back towards the east. (**** )(******** )

Wind abnormalities at(*************************************************************** )mb pressure level. Dave Zierden/NOAA CPC(******************** )

Westerly Wind Burst.

Zierden likewise recorded the” greatest, most extensive westerly wind abnormalities this year over the western and main Pacific (graphic above).” Why is that essential? Academic research study has actually revealed that westerly wind bursts are typically connected with El Niño . Research study recommends that such wind bursts might be accountable for the downwelling Kelvin wave, eastward equatorial surface area currents and the warm swimming pool.(**** )(* )(********************* )Outbound Longwave Radiaion. Outbound

Longwave Radiation( OLR) is determined by satellites. Unfavorable abnormalities of OLR show the existence of convective clouds. Chillier clouds that permeate to greater elevations release less infrared energy noticeable by the satellite. Deep, cold convection in this part of the Pacific basin is a normally connected with the warm stage of the Southern Oscillation (graphic listed below ).

(************ )

Outbound Longwave Radiation over the main Pacific Ocean in

current years. NOAA

Southern Oscillation Index
.
The Southern Oscillation( SOI), according to Dr. Zierden, has actually reached its most affordable level given that2016( graphic listed below). SOI is specified by NOAA as” a standardized index based upon the observed water level pressure distinctions in between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.” Unfavorable SOI exposes lower than regular atmospheric pressure in Tahiti and above regular at Darwin. The pressure worths at these places oscillate in between warming( El Niño ) and cooling (La Ni ñ a) conditions.

The present Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). David Zierden/NOAA CPC

The Jet Stream. This element links U.S. and international weather condition patterns to El Niño. The El Niño in the Pacific Ocean customizes international weather condition patterns through teleconnections. Teleconnections appear modifications or connections in meteorological conditions throughout fars away. According to Dr. Zierden’s tweet, “… the timeless improved subtropical jet over The United States and Canada” has actually existed throughout the previous month. The Climas site at the University of Arizona supplies the required context:

The impact of ENSO on weather condition … is connected to its
capability to alter the position of the jet stream– the winds up that guide storm systems and determine where locations of low and high pressure are placed. Throughout El Niño occasions, the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean ends up being less wavy and divides into a reinforcing subtropical jet stream near the equator and a weaker polar jet stream

This pattern modification impacts international storm tracks, rainfall circulations, and even typhoon
activity in the
Atlantic basin. Zierden informed me by e-mail,

Here in North Florida and the Southeast, the rainy and rainy pattern given that October has actually followed El
Nino. Secret indices utilized by climatologist such as Nino 3.4 index has actually been mainly above the 0.5 C limit given that mid-September. Now climatic indications are lining up with warm ocean temperature levels, signifying that El Nino conditions might effectively last late into spring.

He likewise anticipates NOAA to provide a comparable message to his Twitter thread soon.

(************************************** )(************
)(************** )