algorithms can outperform people at predicting which criminals will get
arrested again, a new study finds.

algorithms that forecast future crimes often help judges and parole
boards decide who stays behind bars (SN: 9/6/17). But these systems have
come under fire for exhibiting racial biases (SN: 3/8/17), and some
research has given reason to doubt that algorithms are any better at predicting
arrests than humans are. One 2018 study that pitted human volunteers against
the risk-assessment tool COMPAS found that people predicted criminal reoffence about as well as the software (SN: 2/20/18).

new set of experiments confirms that humans predict repeat offenders about as
well as algorithms when the people are given immediate feedback on the accuracy
of their predications and when they are shown limited information about each
criminal. But people are worse than computers when individuals don’t get
feedback, or if they are shown more detailed criminal profiles.  

reality, judges and parole boards don’t get instant feedback either, and they
usually have a lot of information to work with in making their decisions. So
the study’s findings suggest that, under realistic prediction conditions, algorithms outmatch people at forecasting
researchers report online February 14 in Science Advances.

social scientist Sharad Goel of Stanford University and colleagues started by mimicking
the setup of the 2018 study. Online volunteers read short descriptions of 50 criminals
— including features like sex, age and number of past arrests — and guessed
whether each person was likely to be arrested for another crime within two
years. After each round, volunteers were told whether they guessed correctly.
As seen in 2018, people rivaled COMPAS’s performance: accurate about 65 percent
of the time.

in a slightly different version of this human vs. computer competition, Goel’s
team found that COMPAS had an edge over people who did not receive feedback. In
this experiment, participants had to predict which of 50 criminals would be
arrested for violentcrimes,
rather than just any crime.

feedback, humans performed this task with 83 percent accuracy — close to
COMPAS’ 89 percent. But without feedback, human accuracy fell to about 60
percent. That’s because people overestimated the risk of criminals committing
violent crimes, despite being told that only 11 percent of the criminals in the
dataset fell into this camp, the researchers say. The study did not investigate
whether factors such as racial or economic biases contributed to that trend.

a third variation of the experiment, risk-assessment algorithms showed an upper
hand when given more detailed criminal profiles. This time, volunteers faced
off against a risk-assessment tool dubbed LSI-R. That software could consider
10 more risk factors than COMPAS, including substance abuse, level of education
and employment status. LSI-R and human volunteers rated criminals on a scale
from very unlikely to very likely to reoffend.

shown criminal profiles that included only a few risk factors, volunteers
performed on par with LSI-R. But when shown more detailed criminal descriptions,
LSI-R won out. The criminals with highest risk of getting arrested again, as
ranked by people, included 57 percent of actual repeat offenders, whereas LSI-R’s
list of most probable arrestees contained about 62 percent of actual reoffenders
in the pool. In a similar task that involved predicting which criminals would
not only get arrested, but re-incarcerated, humans’ highest-risk list contained
58 percent of actual reoffenders, compared with LSI-R’s 74 percent.

scientist Hany Farid of the University of California, Berkeley, who worked on
the 2018 study, is not surprised that algorithms eked out an advantage when
volunteers didn’t get feedback and had more information to juggle. But just
because algorithms outmatch untrained volunteers doesn’t mean their forecasts should
automatically be trusted to make criminal justice decisions, he says.

percent accuracy might sound good, Farid says, but “you’ve got to ask yourself,
if you’re wrong 20 percent of the time, are you willing to tolerate that?”

neither humans nor algorithms show amazing accuracy at predicting whether
someone will commit a crime two years down the line, “should we be using [those
forecasts] as a metric to determine whether somebody goes free?” Farid says. “My
argument is no.”

other questions, like how likely someone is to get a job or jump bail, should
factor more heavily into criminal justice decisions, he suggests.