The images coming out of the panhandle of Florida are exactly what you would expect from a category 4 storm making landfall with 150+ mph winds.¬†Even Georgia, my home state, experienced major (category 3+) hurricane damage for the first time in over a century. For places like Panama City or Mexico Beach, the combination of wind and storm surge was a significant blow. In the midst of this tragedy and despair, I write this open “thank you” letter to the National Hurricane Center. Fatalities are inevitable with a storm of this magnitude, but the ample warnings provided by the National Hurricane Center and all meteorologists saved lives. It is particularly important to point this out given inevitable rumblings that the storm “caught us by surprise” or “they never told us it was going to be a major hurricane.”

Hurricane Michael is now a Tropical StormNOAA

The staff at the National Hurricane Center work tirelessly providing life-saving information to the public. During disasters like Hurricane Michael, we rightfully thank first responders, emergency managers, and volunteers. They do critical work on the front lines of storm recovery and assistance. However, I am not sure people realize the mental stress meteorologists deal with as conveying life-altering information. At times, I felt ill assessing emerging data about Hurricane Michael. Matthew Bolton and colleagues recently published a study in the Journal of Operational Meteorology exploring the human and psychological sides of meteorology. I pulled a current job advertisement for a National Weather Service meteorologist position currently listed at ZipRecruiter.com. It reads,

Rotating shift work is required with the WFO in operation 24 hours a day, seven days a week. During periods of threatening weather or rapidly changing weather conditions, the increase in workload and the necessity for rapid dissemination of weather warnings and updates requires periods of acute mental alertness and produces considerable mental stress. Adverse weather conditions often require the incumbent to work hours longer than the usual shift, adding to mental and physical stress.

I recall worrying about my former Florida State University Meteorology classmate, Andy Devanas. He and colleagues worked continuously out of the National Weather Service – Key West office as Hurricane Irma blew through the Keys. William South, a meteorologist, documented their experience in the Washington Post. My point here is that colleagues selflessly serve the nation. My open letter of thanks to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, private sector meteorologists, and broadcast colleagues is small token of positive affirmation because I know our community hears negativity like the next discussion point.

On social and broader media outlets, you inevitably hear comments like “we were surprised by this storm” or “it was worse than we expected.” Heck, sometimes you even see media outlets run headlines like “It came without warning” even though forecasts were actually in place. I am going to use this space to push back agains the narrative that Hurricane Michael was a “surprise.” I became aware of the possibility of “Michael” affecting Florida on October 4th. I saw an analysis by my colleague Dr. Michael Ventrice of the Weather Company (see below). I then started looking into the data myself and thought to myself, “uh oh.” I knew the Gulf of Mexico was quite warm and conducive for storm development. I posted a warning on my social media platforms around that time to pay attention over the coming days.

A tweet roughly a week before Hurricane Michael made landfallMarshall Shepherd

What was the National Hurricane Center saying and when? I pulled a timeline of selective statements from various National Hurricane Center discussions and public advisories:

4 pm Saturday CDT (October 6): …On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night.

4 am Sunday CDT (October 7): all indications are that the depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over

the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models…Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week…

4 am Monday CDT (October 8): new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall.

Other meteorologists in media outlets and private companies sounded similar alarms. Tropical weather expert Dr. Ryan Maue of Weathermodels.com tweeted this on Sunday October 7th,

Hurricane Center now with Michael reaching at least Category 2 in Gulf of Mexico. Again, most model guidance is showing Category 3-4 pressure & winds. Landfall still uncertain but Pensacola to Tallahassee to Citrus County Florida

Even I wrote in Forbes on Sunday October 7th,

A few models, like the H-WRF shown above, hint at a potentially stronger storm…the storm will eventually move into an upper level environment a more conducive to development. There is also plenty of warm water (29 deg C or higher sea surface temperatures) beneath the storm’s projected track.

Yes, the rapid intensification was shocking but there was plenty of information hinting or explicitly stating that a major hurricane (even category 4) was possible. My point herein is not to “toot our meteorological horns.” On the contrary, it is to erode the cliche narrative that often emerges that meteorologist do not provide ample information for people to make decisions or that the information cannot be trusted. I was quite pleased with the response of FEMA, Governors and Mayors impacted, and institutions like my alma mater, Florida State University. They made pro-active decisions based on the best available weather information rather than waiting for some “magical epiphany.” “Hope” and “wait and see” are no longer viable plans of action for weather events like Hurricane Michael.

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The images coming out of the panhandle of Florida are precisely what you would get out of a classification 4 storm making landfall with 150+ miles per hour winds. Even Georgia, my house state, experienced significant (classification 3+) typhoon damage for the very first time in over a century.(*** )For locations like Panama City or Mexico Beach, the mix of wind and storm rise was a considerable blow. In the middle of this catastrophe and anguish, I compose this open “thank you” letter to the National Cyclone Center. Casualties are inescapable with a storm of this magnitude, however the sufficient cautions supplied by the National Cyclone Center and all meteorologists conserved lives. It is especially essential to point this out provided inescapable rumblings that the storm” captured us by surprise” or “they never ever informed us it was going to be a significant typhoon. “

(******** )(********* )(********** )(***********
)

Cyclone Michael is now a Hurricane NOAA

The personnel at the National Cyclone Center work relentlessly supplying life-saving details to the general public. Throughout catastrophes like Cyclone Michael, we truly thank very first responders, emergency situation supervisors, and volunteers. They do vital deal with the cutting edge of storm healing and help. Nevertheless, I am not exactly sure individuals understand the psychological tension meteorologists handle as communicating life-altering details. Sometimes, I felt ill evaluating emerging information about Cyclone Michael. Matthew Bolton and associates just recently released a research study in the Journal of Operational Meteorology checking out the human and mental sides of meteorology. I pulled a present task ad for a National Weather condition Service meteorologist position presently noted at ZipRecruiter.com. It checks out,

Turning shift work is needed with the WFO in operation 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Throughout durations of threatening weather condition or quickly altering weather, the boost in work and the requirement for fast dissemination of weather condition cautions and updates needs durations of intense psychological awareness and produces significant psychological tension. Negative weather frequently need the incumbent to work hours longer than the typical shift, contributing to psychological and physical tension.

(******* )

I remember stressing over my previous Florida State University Meteorology schoolmate, Andy Devanas. He and associates worked constantly out of the National Weather Condition Service – Secret West workplace as Cyclone Irma blew through the Keys. William South, a meteorologist, recorded their experience in the Washington Post. My point here is that associates selflessly serve the country. My open letter of thanks to the National Cyclone Center, National Weather condition Service, economic sector meteorologists, and broadcast associates is little token of favorable affirmation since I understand our neighborhood hears negativeness like the next conversation point.

On social and more comprehensive media outlets, you undoubtedly hear remarks like “we were shocked by this storm” or “it was even worse than we anticipated.” Heck, in some cases you even see media outlets run headings like “It came without cautioning” despite the fact that projections were really in location. I am going to utilize this area to press back agains the story that Cyclone Michael was a “surprise.” I ended up being mindful of the possibility of “Michael” impacting Florida on October fourth. I saw an analysis by my associate Dr. Michael Ventrice of the Weather condition Business (see listed below). I then began checking out the information myself and believed to myself, “uh oh.” I understood the Gulf of Mexico was rather warm and favorable for storm advancement. I published a caution on my social networks platforms around that time to take note over the coming days.

(************** )

A tweet approximately a week prior to Cyclone Michael made landfall Marshall Shepherd(******* )(************ )

(* )What was the National Cyclone Center stating and when? I pulled a timeline of selective declarations from different National Cyclone Center conversations and public advisories:

4 pm Saturday CDT (October 6): … On the projection track, the center of the disruption need to move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Optimum sustained winds are near 30 miles per hour (45 km/h) with greater gusts. Enhancing is anticipated throughout the next number of days, and the disruption is anticipated to end up being a tropical anxiety on Sunday and a hurricane on Sunday night.

4 am Sunday CDT (October 7): all signs are that the anxiety will slowly enhance while it moves northward over

the Gulf of Mexico. In reality, almost every piece of strength assistance brings the cyclone to typhoon strength prior to it reaches land, consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET worldwide designs … Storm rise, rains, and wind effects are possible over parts of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week …

4 am Monday CDT (October 8): brand-new main projection brings the strength to simply listed below significant typhoon strength in 48 hours, and considering that the storm will still be over water for a time in between 48 and 72 hours, there is a genuine possibility that Michael will enhance to a significant typhoon prior to landfall

Other meteorologists in media outlets and personal business sounded comparable alarms. Tropical weather condition professional Dr. Ryan Maue of Weathermodels.com tweeted this on Sunday October 7th,

Cyclone Center now with Michael reaching a minimum of Classification 2 in Gulf of Mexico. Once again, most model assistance is revealing Classification 3-4 pressure & winds Landfall still unsure however Pensacola to Tallahassee to Citrus County Florida

Even I composed in Forbes on Sunday October 7th,

A couple of designs, like the H-WRF revealed above, mean a possibly more powerful storm … the storm will ultimately move into an upper level environment a more favorable to advancement. There is likewise lots of warm water (29 deg C or greater sea surface area temperature levels) below the storm’s predicted track.

Yes, the fast climax was stunning however there was lots of details hinting or clearly specifying that a significant typhoon (even classification 4) was possible. My point herein is not to “proclaim our meteorological horns.” On the contrary, it is to wear down the cliche story that frequently emerges that meteorologist do not supply sufficient details for individuals to make choices or that the details can not be relied on. I was rather happy with the reaction of FEMA, Governors and Mayors affected, and organizations like my university, Florida State University. They made pro-active choices based upon the very best offered weather condition details instead of awaiting some “wonderful surprise.” “Hope” and “wait and see” are no longer practical strategies for weather condition occasions like Cyclone Michael.

” readability =”92
3943661972″ >

The images coming out of the panhandle of Florida are precisely what you would get out of a classification 4 storm making landfall with 150 + miles per hour winds. Even Georgia, my house state, experienced significant (classification 3 +) typhoon damage for the very first time in over a century. For locations like Panama City or Mexico Beach, the mix of wind and storm rise was a considerable blow. In the middle of this catastrophe and anguish, I compose this open “thank you” letter to the National Cyclone Center. Casualties are inescapable with a storm of this magnitude, however the sufficient cautions supplied by the National Cyclone Center and all meteorologists conserved lives. It is especially essential to point this out provided inescapable rumblings that the storm “captured us by surprise” or “they never ever informed us it was going to be a significant typhoon.”

.

.

Cyclone Michael is now a Hurricane NOAA

.

.

The personnel at the National Cyclone Center work relentlessly supplying life-saving details to the general public. Throughout catastrophes like Cyclone Michael, we truly thank very first responders, emergency situation supervisors, and volunteers. They do vital deal with the cutting edge of storm healing and help. Nevertheless, I am not exactly sure individuals understand the psychological tension meteorologists handle as communicating life-altering details. Sometimes, I felt ill evaluating emerging information about Cyclone Michael. Matthew Bolton and associates just recently released a research study in the Journal of Operational Meteorology checking out the human and mental sides of meteorology. I pulled a present task ad for a National Weather condition Service meteorologist position presently noted at ZipRecruiter.com. It checks out,

.

Turning shift work is needed with the WFO in operation 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Throughout durations of threatening weather condition or quickly altering weather, the boost in work and the requirement for fast dissemination of weather condition cautions and updates needs durations of intense psychological awareness and produces significant psychological tension. Negative weather frequently need the incumbent to work hours longer than the typical shift, contributing to psychological and physical tension.

.

I remember stressing over my previous Florida State University Meteorology schoolmate, Andy Devanas. He and associates worked constantly out of the National Weather Condition Service – Secret West workplace as Cyclone Irma blew through the Keys. William South, a meteorologist, recorded their experience in the Washington Post. My point here is that associates selflessly serve the country. My open letter of thanks to the National Cyclone Center, National Weather condition Service, economic sector meteorologists, and broadcast associates is little token of favorable affirmation since I understand our neighborhood hears negativeness like the next conversation point.

On social and more comprehensive media outlets, you undoubtedly hear remarks like “we were shocked by this storm” or “it was even worse than we anticipated.” Heck, in some cases you even see media outlets run headings like “It came without cautioning” despite the fact that projections were really in location. I am going to utilize this area to press back agains the story that Cyclone Michael was a “surprise.” I ended up being mindful of the possibility of “Michael” impacting Florida on October fourth. I saw an analysis by my associate Dr. Michael Ventrice of the Weather condition Business (see listed below). I then began checking out the information myself and believed to myself, “uh oh.” I understood the Gulf of Mexico was rather warm and favorable for storm advancement. I published a caution on my social networks platforms around that time to take note over the coming days.

.

.

A tweet approximately a week prior to Cyclone Michael made landfall Marshall Shepherd

.

.

What was the National Cyclone Center stating and when? I pulled a timeline of selective declarations from different National Cyclone Center conversations and public advisories:

4 pm Saturday CDT (October 6): … On the projection track, the center of the disruption need to move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Optimum sustained winds are near 30 miles per hour (45 km/h) with greater gusts. Enhancing is anticipated throughout the next number of days, and the disruption is anticipated to end up being a tropical anxiety on Sunday and a hurricane on Sunday night.

4 am Sunday CDT (October 7): all signs are that the anxiety will slowly enhance while it moves northward over

the Gulf of Mexico. In reality, almost every piece of strength assistance brings the cyclone to typhoon strength prior to it reaches land, consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET worldwide designs … Storm rise, rains, and wind effects are possible over parts of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week …

4 am Monday CDT (October 8) : brand-new main projection brings the strength to simply listed below significant typhoon strength in 48 hours , and considering that the storm will still be over water for a time in between 48 and 72 hours, there is a genuine possibility that Michael will enhance to a significant typhoon prior to landfall

.

Other meteorologists in media outlets and personal business sounded comparable alarms. Tropical weather condition professional Dr. Ryan Maue of Weathermodels.com tweeted this on Sunday October 7th ,

.

Cyclone Center now with Michael reaching a minimum of Classification 2 in Gulf of Mexico. Once again, most model assistance is revealing Classification 3-4 pressure & winds Landfall still unsure however Pensacola to Tallahassee to Citrus County Florida

.

Even I composed in Forbes on Sunday October 7th,

.

A couple of designs, like the H-WRF revealed above, mean a possibly more powerful storm … the storm will ultimately move into an upper level environment a more favorable to advancement. There is likewise lots of warm water (29 deg C or greater sea surface area temperature levels) below the storm’s predicted track.

.

Yes, the fast climax was stunning however there was lots of details hinting or clearly specifying that a significant typhoon (even classification 4) was possible. My point herein is not to “proclaim our meteorological horns.” On the contrary, it is to wear down the cliche story that frequently emerges that meteorologist do not supply sufficient details for individuals to make choices or that the details can not be relied on. I was rather happy with the reaction of FEMA, Governors and Mayors affected, and organizations like my university, Florida State University. They made pro-active choices based upon the very best offered weather condition details instead of awaiting some “wonderful surprise.” “Hope” and “wait and see” are no longer practical strategies for weather condition occasions like Cyclone Michael.

.