Hurricane Paulette could make landfall in Bermuda on Sunday night. The storm will bring intense winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rain to the island in the western Atlantic Ocean. Bermuda will experience a period of hazardous weather on Sunday night and Monday morning even if the eye of the hurricane misses by a few miles.

Bermuda is a hook-shaped island that measures about 15 miles long and about 2 miles wide at its widest point. The relative lack of protection provided by the island’s size makes it vulnerable to passing tropical cyclones.

The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast calls for Hurricane Paulette to have sustained winds of about 100 MPH when the core of the storm makes its closest approach on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Several hours of intense winds will damage homes and businesses, knock out power, and push a dangerous storm surge into south- and east-facing coastlines. Heavy rain will lead to flooding issues in vulnerable areas.

Conditions will improve in Bermuda during the day on Monday.

Paulette has forged a remarkably steady track since it formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last weekend. The storm has followed a straight northwestward line across the Atlantic for most of its existence, putting the system on a collision course with Bermuda.

The ridge responsible for steering Paulette toward Bermuda will get shoved east by an upper-level trough sweeping across the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada. This shift will allow the hurricane to abruptly turn northeast and begin accelerating out to sea on Monday. Unfortunately, the recurve won’t happen soon enough to spare Bermuda from the full force of the hurricane.

The eye of the hurricane could make a direct landfall on the island. Due to its small size, it’s rare for hurricanes to make landfall in Bermuda. A landfall occurs when the center of the eye of a storm crosses the coastline. The last hurricane to make direct landfall on Bermuda was Hurricane Gonzalo in 2014, though Hurricane Nicole in 2016 and Hurricane Humberto in 2019 each came close to making landfall, scraping the island with intense winds.