2019 Atlantic hurricane season has started even as impacts of the 2017 and 2018 seasons are still being felt in the United States. Over the past 2 years, lives, property, and economies from the Caribbean to the mainland U.S. were destroyed by hurricanes bearing names like Harvey, Maria, Michael, Irma, and Florence. Questions always arise about whether we have entered a generation of naturally-varying hurricanes “juiced” by a climate change steroid. The NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory website is, in my view, a definitive source on where the science stands on climate change – hurricane linkages. There is so much inaccurate information swirling around questions like “Is climate warming causing more frequent or stronger hurricanes?” I strongly urge the reader to visit the website, which is continuously updated by hurricane experts, rather than play “Twitter tennis” with people on whether changes in hurricane activity are natural or anthropogenically-impacted (By the way, it is almost always “and” not “or”). Four recent studies in the peer review literature show that hurricanes and their environments along the U.S. East Coast are changing. Here is my breakdown of why that is bad news.

Hurricane Florence

USA.gov

The study that originally caught my eye was a new study published in Nature. The paper is entitled, “Hurricane stalling along the North American coast and implications for rainfall.” The study found that average speed of tropical cyclone movement has slowed since the middle of last century. Specifically, North Atlantic tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are more likely to “stall” near coastlines. This is precisely what we saw with Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas in 2018 and Hurricane Florence in2017 Both storms produced record-breaking, life-altering, and economy-devastating flooding. Jim Kossin, one of the authors of the study, told me by email:

There’s nothing good that comes with a hurricane hanging around your neighborhood for a long time. You get much more rainfall flooding, which is a leading cause of hurricane-related deaths, as well as more wind damage. The recent hurricanes Harvey and Florence, and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique show this to devastating effect

Kossin, an atmospheric research scientist at NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

at the University of Wisconsin, also points out that their analysis found evidence of increased coastal rainfall over the period 1948 to2017 The paper concludes that the stalling is related to slower movement of the storms and abrupt changes in direction. It was beyond the scope of the study to attempt attribution of the stalling tendency to natural variability or climate warming. Another paper published by Kossin recently found a 17% slowdown of hurricane translation speed over the conterminous US since 1900.

Flooding from Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Texas

NWS

A third study published by Kossin in Nature, one of the most selective and rigorous scientific journals in the world, found that the natural climate barrier to hurricane intensification along the U.S. coast is being degraded by greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The study abstract points out that vertical wind shear (VWS) and sea surface temperatures (SST) “form a protective barrier along the United States during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity.” It is well-known that warm SST is favorable for hurricane intensification, on average, and oceans generally are warming in response to climate change. Scientific understanding of how VWS will change due to climate warming has lagged.

Typically, vertical wind shear serves to mitigate hurricane development as the storms move out the tropics and toward the U.S. East Coast (graphic below). Kossin and colleagues from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory recently published a paper in Scientific Reports that used climate models to show that rising greenhouse gases (atmospheric carbon dioxide is currently at 413.5 ppm) will weaken vertical wind shear along the East Coast. Some of the simulations suggests that this could happen within the next couple of decades. Weaker wind shear, coupled with warmer SSTs, would be favorable to intensification if a hurricane moves into the region. Unfortunately, separate studies by scientists like Kerry Emanuel and colleagues have found that hurricanes are intensifying, on average, further away from the tropics and at latitudes closer to U.S. coastal cities.

Kossin sums up the threat in the email, “We’re finding long-term changes in hurricane behavior that are heightening risk along the U.S. East Coast.”

Deep Layer Wind Shear along the U.S. East Coast on June 7th

CIMSS/NOAA

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The2019 Atlantic typhoon season has actually begun even as effects of the2017 and2018 seasons are still being felt in the United States. Over the previous 2 years, lives, home, and economies from the Caribbean to the mainland U.S. were ruined by cyclones bearing names like Harvey, Maria, Michael, Irma, and Florence. Concerns constantly develop about whether we have actually gotten in a generation of naturally-varying cyclones “juiced” by an environment modification steroid.(**** )The NOAA Geophysical Fluid Characteristics Lab site is, in my view, a conclusive source on where the science bases on environment modification- typhoon linkages. There is a lot incorrect info swirling around concerns like “Is environment warming triggering more regular or more powerful cyclones?” I highly prompt the reader to go to the site(*** ), which is continually upgraded by typhoon professionals, instead of play “Twitter tennis” with individuals on whether modifications in typhoon activity are natural or anthropogenically-impacted( By the method, it is usually” and “not” or “). 4 current research studies in the peer evaluation literature reveal that cyclones and their environments along the U.S. East Coast are altering. Here is my breakdown of why that is bad news.

(********** )(*********** )

Typhoon Florence

USA.gov

The
research study that initially captured my eye

was a brand-new research study released in Nature. The paper is entitled,” Typhoon stalling along the North American coast and ramifications for rains.”(*** )The research study discovered that typical speed of tropical cyclone motion has actually slowed given that the middle of last century. Particularly, North Atlantic hurricanes (cyclones) are most likely to “stall “near shorelines. This is specifically what we saw with Typhoon Florence in the Carolinas in2018 and Typhoon Florence in (******************************************************* ). Both storms produced record-breaking, life-altering, and economy-devastating flooding. Jim Kossin, among the authors of the research study, informed me by e-mail:

There’s absolutely nothing great that includes a typhoon spending time your area for

a very long time. You get far more rains flooding, which is a leading reason for hurricane-related deaths, in addition to more wind damage. The current cyclones Harvey and Florence, and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique reveal this to terrible impact

(******************** )

Kossin, a climatic research study researcher at NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Research Studies

at the University of Wisconsin, likewise mentions that their analysis discovered proof of increased seaside rains over the duration1948 to2017 The paper concludes that the stalling is associated with slower motion of the storms and abrupt modifications in instructions. It was beyond the scope of the research study to try attribution of the stalling propensity to natural irregularity or environment warming.(********************** )Another paper released by Kossin(*** )just recently discovered a17% downturn of typhoon translation speed over the conterminous United States given that1900

(************************ )(********* )

Flooding from Typhoon Harvey

in Houston, Texas

NWS

(********** )

A 3rd research study released by Kossin in Nature
, among the most selective and strenuous clinical journals on the planet, discovered that the natural environment barrier to typhoon climax along the U.S. coast is being deteriorated by greenhouse gas (GHG ) requiring. The research study abstract mention that vertical wind shear( VWS) and sea surface area temperature levels (SST)” form a protective barrier along the United States throughout durations of increased basin-wide typhoon activity.” It is popular that warm SST agrees with for typhoon climax, typically, and oceans usually are warming in action to environment modification. Scientific understanding of how VWS will alter due to environment warming has actually lagged.

Generally, vertical wind shear serves to alleviate typhoon advancement as the storms vacate the tropics and towards the U.S. East Coast( graphic listed below). Kossin and associates from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory(**************************** )just recently released a paper in Scientific Reports (****************** ) that utilized environment designs to reveal that increasing greenhouse gases ( climatic co2 is presently at4135 ppm ) will compromise vertical wind shear along the East Coast. A few of the simulations recommends that this might take place within the next number of years. Weaker wind shear, combined with warmer SSTs, would agree with to climax if a typhoon moves into the area. Regrettably,(******************************** )different research studies by researchers like Kerry Emanuel and associates have actually discovered that cyclones are heightening, typically, even more far from the tropics and at latitudes closer to U.S. seaside cities.

Kossin summarize the risk in the e-mail,” We’re discovering long-lasting modifications in typhoon habits that are increasing danger along the U.S. East Coast.”

(********************************** )
(************ )

Deep Layer Wind Shear along the U.S. East Coast on June 7th

CIMSS/NOAA

” readability =”57070762711864″ >

The2019 Atlantic typhoon season has actually begun(*** )even as effects of the 2017 and2018 seasons are still being felt in the United States. Over the previous 2 years, lives, home, and economies from the Caribbean to the mainland U.S. were ruined by cyclones bearing names like Harvey, Maria, Michael, Irma, and Florence. Concerns constantly develop about whether we have actually gotten in a generation of naturally-varying cyclones “juiced” by an environment modification steroid. The NOAA Geophysical Fluid Characteristics Lab site is, in my view, a conclusive source on where the science bases on environment modification – typhoon linkages. There is a lot incorrect info swirling around concerns like “Is environment warming triggering more regular or more powerful cyclones?” I highly prompt the reader to go to the site, which is continually upgraded by typhoon professionals, instead of play “Twitter tennis” with individuals on whether modifications in typhoon activity are natural or anthropogenically-impacted( By the method, it is usually “and” not “or”).

4 current research studies in the peer evaluation literature reveal that cyclones and their environments along the U.S. East Coast are altering.
Here is my breakdown of why that is bad news.

.

.

Typhoon Florence

USA.gov

.

.

The research study that initially captured my eye was a brand-new research study released in Nature. The paper is entitled, “Typhoon stalling along the North American coast and ramifications for rains.” The research study discovered that typical speed of hurricane motion has actually slowed given that the middle of last century. Particularly, North Atlantic hurricanes (cyclones) are most likely to “stall” near shorelines. This is specifically what we saw with Typhoon Florence in the Carolinas in 2018 and Typhoon Florence in2017 Both storms produced record-breaking, life-altering, and economy-devastating flooding. Jim Kossin, among the authors of the research study, informed me by e-mail:

.

There’s absolutely nothing great that includes a typhoon spending time your area for a very long time. You get far more rains flooding, which is a leading reason for hurricane-related deaths, in addition to more wind damage. The current cyclones Harvey and Florence, and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique reveal this to terrible impact

.

Kossin, a climatic research study researcher at NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Research Studies

at the University of Wisconsin, likewise mentions that their analysis discovered proof of increased seaside rains over the duration 1948 to2017 The paper concludes that the stalling is associated with slower motion of the storms and abrupt modifications in instructions. It was beyond the scope of the research study to try attribution of the stalling propensity to natural irregularity or environment warming. Another paper released by Kossin just recently discovered a 17 % downturn of typhoon translation speed over the conterminous United States given that1900

.

.

Flooding from Typhoon Harvey in Houston, Texas

NWS

.

.

A 3rd research study released by Kossin in Nature , among the most selective and strenuous clinical journals on the planet, discovered that the natural environment barrier to typhoon climax along the U.S. coast is being deteriorated by greenhouse gas (GHG) requiring. The research study abstract mention that vertical wind shear (VWS) and sea surface area temperature levels (SST) “form a protective barrier along the United States throughout durations of increased basin-wide typhoon activity.” It is popular that warm SST agrees with for typhoon climax, typically, and oceans usually are warming in action to environment modification. Scientific understanding of how VWS will alter due to environment warming has actually lagged.

Generally, vertical wind shear serves to alleviate typhoon advancement as the storms vacate the tropics and towards the U.S. East Coast (graphic listed below). Kossin and associates from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory just recently released a paper in Scientific Reports that utilized environment designs to reveal that increasing greenhouse gases ( climatic co2 is presently at 413.5 ppm ) will compromise vertical wind shear along the East Coast. A few of the simulations recommends that this might take place within the next number of years. Weaker wind shear, combined with warmer SSTs, would agree with to climax if a typhoon moves into the area. Regrettably, different research studies by researchers like Kerry Emanuel and associates have actually discovered that cyclones are heightening, typically, even more far from the tropics and at latitudes closer to U.S. seaside cities.

Kossin summarize the risk in the e-mail, “We’re discovering long-lasting modifications in typhoon habits that are increasing danger along the U.S. East Coast.”

.

.

Deep Layer Wind Shear along the U.S. East Coast on June 7th

CIMSS/NOAA

.

.

.