The National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook at 2: 20 PM EDT May 31, 2019.
NOAA/NHC
The National Hurricane Center said Friday that a disturbance moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico had a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next five days. Regardless of development, the disturbance will bring more heavy rain to Mexico and it could bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Gulf Coast if it holds together through next week.
A sea surface temperature analysis on May 30, 2019.
Dennis Mersereau
A disturbance bringing flooding rains to southern Mexico this week will meander toward the Bay of Campeche by early next week. Relatively low wind shear, ample moisture, and warm waters may allow the disturbance to slowly develop if it holds together and moves over water. Sea surface temperatures in the southern Gulf of Mexico are warm enough to support tropical development. This is an important point so early in the season, as warm waters provide the instability needed to maintain the thunderstorms around the center of a tropical cyclone.
The system—whether it’s a disturbance or it grows into something more—will likely drift toward eastern Mexico by the middle of next week, with its moisture spreading into parts of Texas and Louisiana by the end of the week. This tropical moisture may allow showers and thunderstorms to produce heavy rain that could lead to flooding. It’s important to keep an eye on the risk for flooding in the Gulf Coast states next week regardless of what happens with this disturbance.
June 1 is the first day of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, so we’re right on schedule to see potential tropical development in the forecast in the warmer latitudes. This is right around where you would expect to see an early-season storm develop. Tropical systems in June tend to form close to land in the southwestern Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico; tropical cyclone initiation typically starts to expand farther out into the tropical Atlantic as the summer wears on.
We’ve already had our first named storm of the year. Subtropical Storm Andrea formed a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda a couple of weeks ago. The short-lived storm didn’t affect land and it was largely overshadowed in news coverage by severe thunderstorms on the Plains. Andrea’s formation marked the fifth year in a row that we saw our first named storm before the official start of hurricane season, and the seventh time overall in the last decade.
The next named storm—whether it’s this disturbance or another storm down the road—will be called Barry.
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The National Typhoon Center’s tropical weather condition outlook at 2:20 PM EDT May31,2019
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) NOAA/NHC
A sea surface area temperature level analysis on May30,2019
Dennis Mersereau
A disruption bringing flooding rains to southern Mexico today will meander towards the Bay of Campeche by early next week. Fairly low wind shear, adequate wetness, and warm waters might enable the disruption to gradually establish if it holds together and moves over water. Sea surface area temperature levels in the southern Gulf of Mexico are warm sufficient to support tropical advancement. This is an essential point so early in the season, as warm waters supply the instability required to keep the thunderstorms around the center of a hurricane.
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) The system– whether it’s a disruption or it turns into something more– will likely wander towards eastern Mexico by the middle of next week, with its wetness spreading out into parts of Texas and Louisiana by the end of the week. This tropical wetness might enable showers and thunderstorms to produce heavy rain that might cause flooding. It is very important to watch on the danger for flooding in the Gulf Coast specifies next week despite what occurs with this disruption.
June 1 is the very first day of the2019 Atlantic Typhoon Season, so we’re best on schedule to see prospective tropical advancement in the projection in the warmer latitudes. This is best around where you would anticipate to see an early-season storm establish. Tropical systems in June tend to form near to land(******************************** )in the southwestern Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico; cyclone initiation normally begins to broaden further out into the tropical Atlantic as the summertime endures. (*************************** )(************************************ )
